CMN Intelligence

Housing Intelligence

California Housing Affordability Fell Back to 19% in Q2 2026

California’s modeled housing affordability benchmark fell back to 19% in Q2 2026. The practical question is what that number means for a household trying to buy. C.A.R.’s model put the statewide median existing single family home at $916,750 and the qualifying income at $228,400, while Riverside County carried a lower modeled income hurdle and new construction expanded buyer choice without proving that the affordability problem was solved.
Scroll

Charles M. Nolan Jr. | CA DRE #02223634 | First Team Real Estate

Executive summary

California housing affordability improved at the start of 2026, then fell back to 19% in the second quarter as the modeled income hurdle for the statewide median existing single family home reached $228,400. In plain language, the 19% figure means 19% of California households met or exceeded that modeled income threshold under C.A.R.’s assumptions, not that exactly 19% of individual Californians can buy any home. Riverside County offered a lower modeled hurdle, with a 28% affordability reading and a $159,600 qualifying income for its $640,000 median existing single family home. New construction adds real buyer choice, but the current national, California and Riverside County evidence does not show that new construction has materially relieved California’s existing home affordability constraint or produced a measurable competitive effect on Riverside County resale housing.

Why this matters

The headline number is easy to read and easy to misuse. A 19% statewide affordability benchmark does not answer whether a specific household can buy a specific home, and it does not explain whether a resale home or a new construction home offers the better ownership path.

The more useful question is this: what is driving the ownership hurdle, where is that hurdle lower, and does new construction materially change the decision? California’s Q2 data show a statewide median existing single family home price of $916,750 and a modeled qualifying income of $228,400. Riverside County lowers that benchmark meaningfully, but it does not remove the affordability constraint.

For the broader housing market, the same discipline matters. Permits, starts, completions, new home sales, marketed builder options and resale listings describe different parts of the housing system. When those measures are blended together, households can misread their choices, sellers can misread competition, builders can misread demand, and public or institutional users can misread whether housing production is actually translating into improved access.

Start with the question behind the headline. Use the full report to compare California’s affordability benchmark with Riverside County and to separate resale affordability from the new construction pipeline before applying the numbers to a specific property. Explore the CMN Research Library.

Key Takeaways

  1. California affordability reversed part of its early 2026 improvement. The modeled HAI moved from 22% in Q1 2026 to 19% in Q2, a decline of 3 percentage points, while remaining 2 points above the revised Q2 2025 reading of 17%.
  2. The income hurdle is the clearest way to understand the statewide constraint. C.A.R.’s Q2 model used a $916,750 median existing single family home price, $5,710 in modeled monthly principal, interest, taxes and insurance, a 6.54% effective composite mortgage rate and a $228,400 minimum annual qualifying income.
  3. Riverside County offered a meaningful relative advantage, not broad affordability. Its HAI was 28%, its median existing single family home price was $640,000 and its qualifying income was $159,600.
  4. The geographic gap is large. Riverside County’s qualifying income hurdle was $68,800 below California’s, while the United States HAI stood at 40%, 21 percentage points above California.
  5. The affordability problem is not only a mortgage rate story. California’s annual median existing single family home price rose from $319,310 in 2012 to $875,550 in 2025, about 174% cumulative growth and roughly an 8.1% compound annual growth rate.
  6. New construction is a separate decision universe. California authorized 103,856 housing units in 2025 and Riverside County authorized 9,697, about 9.3% of the statewide total. Those are authorizations, not completed or available homes.
  7. Riverside County has maintained a sizable production pipeline. Annual authorizations were 9,264 units in 2021, 10,284 in 2022, 12,953 in 2023, 9,598 in 2024 and 9,697 in 2025.
  8. Housing pipeline stages are moving differently. National July 2026 permits rose 5.0% from revised June, starts fell 12.4%, completions fell 9.1%, new single family home sales fell 10.5%, and months of new home supply rose to 9.6.
  9. Southwest Riverside buyers can see a broad range of marketed new home options, but marketed choice is not the same as market wide affordability. CMN’s August 23 monitoring snapshot displayed 141 marketed Riverside County communities across multiple price tiers.
  10. The most important conclusion is also the limit of the evidence. Current data do not establish that new construction is offsetting California’s 19% affordability benchmark or quantify its effect on Riverside County resale housing. Comparable local sales, absorption, completed supply, incentives and resale evidence are still required.

Why Did California Affordability Fall Back After Improving Earlier in 2026?

California’s modeled housing affordability benchmark improved at the start of 2026, then moved in the opposite direction in the second quarter. C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index measured 19% in Q2 2026, down from 22% in Q1 2026 and above the revised 17% reading from Q2 2025.

The immediate takeaway is not that three percentage points disappeared from every household’s buying power. The index is a population benchmark. It estimates the share of households with enough modeled income to carry the median priced existing single family home under a standard set of assumptions.

That distinction matters because the headline can otherwise sound more personal than it is. The 19% figure does not say that exactly 19% of individual Californians can buy a home. It says that 19% of households met or exceeded the modeled qualifying income threshold for the statewide median existing single family home in that quarter.

What Does the 19% Number Actually Mean for a Household?

The strongest way to translate the index is through the income hurdle behind it. For Q2 2026, C.A.R. reported a statewide median existing single family home price of $916,750. Under its model, monthly principal, interest, property taxes and insurance totaled $5,710. The minimum annual qualifying income was $228,400, using a 6.54% effective composite mortgage rate.

C.A.R.’s methodology assumes a 20% down payment, finances the remaining 80%, assumes annual property taxes equal to 1% of the median price and homeowners insurance equal to 0.38%, and limits monthly principal, interest, taxes and insurance to 30% of household income.

That makes the $228,400 income threshold more decision useful than the 19% headline by itself. It shows the scale of the modeled purchase hurdle while preserving the fact that actual qualification depends on the household, property, loan structure, debt profile, taxes, insurance and other costs.

Is This Mainly a Mortgage Rate Problem?

Mortgage rates matter, but the evidence does not support reducing California’s affordability problem to rates alone. The purchase price base has also changed dramatically.

California’s annual median existing single family home price rose from $319,310 in 2012 to $875,550 in 2025. That is approximately 174% cumulative growth, or about an 8.1% compound annual growth rate over the period.

The long run price expansion raised the amount households must finance. The financing environment after 2022 then increased the carrying cost associated with those higher prices. Price, rates, taxes, insurance and income all interact inside the affordability model, so a responsible interpretation cannot assign the full Q2 movement to one variable.

Does Riverside County Change the Affordability Picture?

Yes, but only in a relative sense.

Riverside County’s Q2 2026 HAI was 28%, compared with 19% statewide. Its median existing single family home price was $640,000 and its modeled minimum annual qualifying income was $159,600.

Compared with California overall, Riverside County’s median was $276,750 lower and its qualifying income hurdle was $68,800 lower. That is a meaningful geographic difference for households evaluating where ownership may be more attainable.

It is not evidence that Riverside County is broadly affordable for every household. It also does not permit the county’s 28% reading to be assigned to Menifee, Murrieta, Temecula, Perris, Winchester, Lake Elsinore or another individual city without comparable city level evidence.

How Far Does California Trail the National Benchmark?

C.A.R.’s Q2 2026 table reported a United States HAI of 40%, compared with 28% for Riverside County and 19% for California. The national reading stood 21 percentage points above California.

Riverside County therefore occupied an intermediate position in the same modeled framework. The comparison helps show the scale of California’s affordability constraint, but it remains market intelligence rather than a household eligibility conclusion.

Why Is the Income Gap More Useful Than the Percentage Gap?

For a household comparing locations, a percentage can feel abstract. The income threshold makes the geographic difference concrete.

California’s modeled minimum qualifying income was $228,400 in Q2 2026. Riverside County’s was $159,600. The $68,800 gap captures the difference in the modeled income needed to carry each geography’s median existing single family home under the same C.A.R. assumptions.

That does not tell a household which property to buy. It tells the household where the modeled hurdle is lower and where a more detailed property specific comparison may be worth making.

Does New Construction Offer a Way Around the Affordability Constraint?

New construction can expand choice, but the evidence does not support treating it as a simple escape valve from California’s existing home affordability problem.

C.A.R.’s Traditional HAI is built around the median priced existing single family home. New construction operates in a different market universe. A new home can have a different asking price, financing offer, tax burden, HOA structure, special assessment, warranty package, closing cost profile and incentive structure. Those differences can materially affect the household decision, but they do not change the published 19% statewide HAI.

This is where the broader housing story becomes more important than the headline. The relevant question is not merely whether new homes exist. It is whether the production pipeline is delivering homes at a pace, price and ownership cost that changes the options available to households and the competitive environment facing resale housing.

Why Can Permits Rise While Housing Supply Still Feels Constrained?

Because a permit is only one stage of the production pipeline.

National July 2026 data show the difference clearly. Privately owned housing units authorized by permits were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million, 5.0% above revised June. Housing starts were 1.239 million, 12.4% below revised June. Housing completions were 1.212 million, 9.1% below revised June.

Single family permits were 894,000, starts were 808,000 and completions were 878,000. The stages were not moving together.

The August 25 New Residential Sales release adds another layer. National new single family home sales were estimated at 607,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 10.5% from revised June and 6.3% from July 2025. New houses for sale were estimated at 488,000, 1.9% above June, and months of supply rose to 9.6. The national median sales price of new houses sold was $393,800.

These measures describe different parts of the market. Permits show authorizations. Starts show construction beginning. Completions show delivered units. New home sales show transactions in the national new single family market. For sale inventory and months of supply describe another stage again. None of those national measures can be assigned directly to California, Riverside County or Southwest Riverside.

What Does the Riverside County Production Pipeline Actually Tell Us?

Census data report 103,856 housing units authorized by permits in California in 2025. Riverside County authorized 9,697, approximately 9.3% of the statewide total under the broad Census permit measure.

The county’s longer series shows 9,264 authorized units in 2021, 10,284 in 2022, 12,953 in 2023, 9,598 in 2024 and 9,697 in 2025. The 2023 total was the highest of those five years, followed by lower but still substantial totals in 2024 and 2025.

The correct conclusion is that Riverside County has maintained an active authorization pipeline. The incorrect conclusion would be that 9,697 completed homes became available to buyers in 2025. Permit data do not establish how many units started, completed, sold or remained available.

What Are Buyers Actually Seeing in Southwest Riverside?

Current marketed new home options are visible across Riverside County and Southwest Riverside, but the market monitoring evidence must also be read carefully.

CMN’s August 23, 2026 builder market monitoring snapshot displayed 141 marketed communities at the Riverside County level. The monitoring record included examples in Menifee, Temecula, Perris, Winchester and Lake Elsinore across multiple asking price tiers.

Examples included Oliva at Siena in Winchester with displayed pricing from $419,990 to $494,990, Ladera in Menifee from $544,990 to $653,742, Lenox at Park West in Perris from $531,990 to $652,990, Waypoint at Altair in Temecula from $689,000 to $746,390 and Sablewood Estates at Sommers Bend in Temecula from $1,749,000 to $1,913,119.

Those observations prove that marketed buyer choice exists. They do not prove how many homes are completed, how many remain unsold, what buyers actually paid, how quickly communities are absorbing homes, how common incentives are or whether the new home channel is changing resale pricing.

What Should a Household Compare Before Choosing Resale or New Construction?

The most useful comparison is not resale versus new construction in the abstract. It is one actual property against another actual property.

That comparison should include purchase price, down payment, loan program, interest rate, taxes, insurance, HOA fees, special assessments or Mello Roos where applicable, builder incentives, rate buydowns, closing cost assistance, maintenance expectations, warranties and other property specific costs.

A lower asking price does not automatically produce a lower monthly cost. A builder incentive is not automatically available, durable or economically superior. A resale home can also carry different tax, maintenance and renovation considerations. The statewide HAI gives the market benchmark, but the household decision requires a property level ownership cost comparison.

So What Does the Evidence Say About New Homes Competing With Resale?

The evidence supports a cautious answer.

New construction is clearly an active buyer choice channel in Riverside County and Southwest Riverside. Nationally, July permits increased while starts, completions and new home sales declined, and months of new home supply rose to 9.6. Riverside County’s five year permit history confirms persistent authorization activity. CMN’s market monitoring confirms visible new home choices across several local price tiers.

What the evidence does not establish is equally important. It does not show that new construction is materially relieving California’s existing home affordability constraint, and it does not quantify a competitive effect on Riverside County resale housing.

That conclusion would require comparable local new home closing prices, completed supply, sales pace, absorption, verified incentives, months of supply and resale inventory and pricing evidence for the same geography and period.

What Changed After Q2, and Does It Change the Conclusion?

Post quarter evidence adds context but does not recalculate the Q2 affordability benchmark.

C.A.R. reported California’s July 2026 statewide median existing single family home price at $887,680, down 1.9% from June and up 0.3% from July 2025. Freddie Mac reported an average 30 year fixed mortgage rate of 6.66% on August 27, 2026.

Census also released July construction indicators and, on August 25, July New Residential Sales. Those national new home figures add useful evidence about sales pace, inventory and months of supply after Q2. They do not establish California’s Q3 HAI, and they do not establish Riverside County or Southwest Riverside new home absorption or resale competition.

The current conclusion therefore remains intact: California’s ownership hurdle is still severe, Riverside County offers a lower relative hurdle, and new construction expands choice without yet proving that the affordability constraint has been materially relieved.

California Affordability Trails Riverside County and the U.S.

Comparison of modeled Housing Affordability Index values for California, Riverside County and the United States across Q2 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, with Q2 2026 values of 19%, 28% and 40% respectively.

The same modeled HAI framework shows California at 19% in Q2 2026, Riverside County at 28% and the United States at 40%. Riverside County sits between the statewide and national benchmarks, showing a meaningful relative affordability advantage without implying broad affordability for every household.

California Association of REALTORS®, Q2 2026 Housing Affordability Index.

California’s Q2 2026 Income Hurdle Was $68,800 Higher Than Riverside County’s

California and Riverside County comparison showing Q2 2026 median existing home prices of $916,750 and $640,000 and modeled minimum qualifying incomes of $228,400 and $159,600.

The clearest geographic difference is the income hurdle. California’s Q2 2026 median existing single family home required a modeled qualifying income of $228,400, compared with $159,600 in Riverside County, a $68,800 difference under the same C.A.R. framework.

California Association of REALTORS®, Q2 2026 Housing Affordability Index; CMN calculations.

California’s Long Run Price Expansion Raised the Purchase Hurdle as Modeled Affordability Tightened

Two aligned panels showing California annual median existing single family home prices rising from 2012 through 2025 and California modeled Housing Affordability Index readings over time, with Q2 2026 identified separately at 19%.

California’s annual median existing single family home price rose from $319,310 in 2012 to $875,550 in 2025. The chart separates the long run price series from the affordability series so readers can see the expanding purchase hurdle without implying that the two measures share one scale. Q2 2026 HAI is identified separately at 19%.

California Association of REALTORS® historical series and Q2 2026 Housing Affordability release; CMN calculations.

Comparing locations or housing types? Use the research as market context, then compare current property specific resale and new construction options side by side. Explore Southern California properties or review buyer and new construction advisory.

CMN Intelligence Perspective

What is the real story behind California’s 19% affordability reading?

The central signal is the size of the modeled ownership hurdle. A $916,750 statewide median existing single family home translated into a $228,400 minimum qualifying income under C.A.R.’s Q2 assumptions. The percentage is useful, but the income threshold makes the problem easier to understand and compare.

What are people most likely to misread?

Two things. First, 19% is not a personal mortgage approval rate. Second, more housing activity does not automatically mean more affordable housing is immediately available. Permits, starts, completions, sales, marketed inventory and resale listings measure different stages and different market universes.

Does Riverside County materially change the decision?

It can. Riverside County’s modeled income hurdle was $68,800 lower than California’s statewide hurdle, which creates a meaningful geographic tradeoff for households. But the county’s 28% HAI still describes a constrained market, and it cannot be assigned to an individual Southwest Riverside city without comparable evidence.

What does new construction add to the affordability story?

It adds another path households can compare and another supply channel the market must monitor. The evidence shows persistent Riverside County authorization activity and visible marketed new home choice, but it does not show that new construction has solved the affordability problem or produced a measurable local resale effect.

What is CMN’s evidence bound interpretation?

The most important distinction is between more housing activity and more attainable ownership. California can authorize housing, Riverside County can maintain a substantial pipeline, and buyers can see new home options while the modeled ownership hurdle remains high. Whether production is improving access depends on what ultimately starts, completes, sells, at what ownership cost, and how those homes compare with resale alternatives.

What would change this conclusion?

Comparable local evidence showing completed new home supply, closing prices, absorption, months of supply, durable incentives and matched resale inventory and pricing could strengthen or weaken the current interpretation. Until those measures are available at matching geographies and periods, the competitive relationship should remain a monitored question rather than a claimed result.

Want to keep following the evidence? Continue into CMN’s housing intelligence library for new affordability, supply and local market updates as the data change. View current research.

Decision support

For Households Comparing Ownership Options

Start with the income hurdle, then move to the property. California’s statewide benchmark shows the scale of the constraint, while Riverside County shows where that modeled hurdle is lower. If comparing resale with new construction, evaluate the actual purchase price, loan terms, rate, down payment, taxes, insurance, HOA costs, special assessments, maintenance expectations, incentives, warranties and closing costs for each property. Use the HAI as context, not as a personal approval estimate.

For Homeowners and Sellers

New construction can compete for the same buyer attention, especially where communities are actively marketed nearby. Current evidence does not quantify the effect on a Riverside County or Southwest Riverside resale home. Monitor comparable resale inventory and sales together with verified nearby builder pricing, completed supply, incentives and absorption before drawing a competition conclusion.

For Housing Professionals

Match each measure to the question it can answer. C.A.R.’s HAI is an existing home affordability benchmark. Census permits are authorizations. Starts and completions describe construction stages. Census New Residential Sales measures the national new single family home sales and for sale universe. CMN builder market monitoring provides observed marketed community context. Resale listings and transactions describe a different inventory and sales universe.

For Builders, Developers and Lenders

The statewide and Riverside County income hurdles show the scale of the household constraint, while permit, construction, national new home sales and local marketed community evidence show an active but uneven production and sales pipeline. Product, pricing, financing and incentive decisions require verified local demand, completed inventory, absorption, land and infrastructure conditions and current financing economics rather than one affordability or supply measure alone.

For Public Agencies and Institutional Users

Affordability and production should be analyzed as connected systems, not interchangeable indicators. The HAI describes a modeled ownership hurdle. Permits, starts, completions, sales and inventory describe different parts of housing production and market movement. Combining those measures with household income, cost burden, tenure, infrastructure and local production evidence creates stronger decision support than any single headline statistic.

What to Watch Next

  • California and Riverside County permit authorizations and revisions.
  • Starts, units under construction and completions at comparable geographies where authoritative data exist.
  • California, Riverside County and Southwest Riverside new home sales, absorption and months of supply where defensibly comparable evidence becomes available.
  • Builder asking prices, verified closing prices, closing cost support and verified mortgage rate incentives.
  • HOA, special assessment and recurring ownership cost differences between new construction and resale alternatives.
  • Comparable resale active inventory, pricing and transaction pace.
  • Southwest Riverside city level evidence that can be matched by geography, period and definition.

Trying to decide whether resale or new construction fits your housing plan? Start with current property specific options, then compare financing, taxes, HOA costs, special assessments, incentives and total ownership costs rather than relying on the statewide headline alone. Explore Southern California properties or review buyer and new construction advisory.

Frequently asked questions

What does a 19% California Housing Affordability Index actually mean?

It means 19% of California households had modeled income at or above the qualifying income required for the statewide median priced existing single family home under C.A.R.’s Q2 2026 assumptions. It is not a personal mortgage approval rate and it does not mean exactly 19% of individual Californians can buy any home.

Why did California affordability fall from 22% to 19%?

The index moved down 3 percentage points from Q1 to Q2 2026. C.A.R.’s model reflects the interaction of home price, financing cost, taxes, insurance and household income, so the evidence in this report does not assign the entire decline to one variable.

How much income did the model require in California?

C.A.R. reported a minimum annual qualifying income of $228,400 for the $916,750 statewide median existing single family home in Q2 2026, with modeled monthly principal, interest, taxes and insurance of $5,710.

Was Riverside County more affordable than California?

Relatively, yes. Riverside County’s HAI was 28% versus 19% statewide, and its modeled qualifying income was $159,600 versus $228,400 for California. That is a meaningful difference, but it does not mean Riverside County is broadly affordable for every household.

Can Riverside County’s 28% HAI be used for Menifee, Murrieta, Temecula or Perris?

No. A countywide affordability index cannot be assigned to an individual city without a comparable city level source and methodology.

Does new construction change California’s 19% HAI?

No. C.A.R.’s Traditional HAI is based on the median priced existing single family home. New construction can change buyer choice and future supply, but permits, builder asking prices, new home sales and marketed community observations are not inputs to the published Q2 HAI.

Do Riverside County permits mean thousands of affordable homes are about to become available?

No. Permit counts measure authorizations, not completed or available homes. They show production intent and pipeline activity, but they do not establish how many homes ultimately start, complete, sell, at what price or at what ownership cost.

How should a buyer compare resale with new construction?

Compare the actual economics of specific properties. Include purchase price, loan terms, rate, down payment, taxes, insurance, HOA costs, special assessments, builder incentives, closing cost support, expected maintenance, warranties and other property specific costs.

Is new construction competing with resale homes in Riverside County?

It is a competing buyer choice in the broad sense that households can consider both product types. This report does not quantify a local competitive market effect because comparable new home sales, absorption, incentives and inventory have not been matched with resale evidence at the same geography and period.

Do the July 2026 housing releases tell us what California affordability will be in Q3?

No. July existing home statistics, the August 27 mortgage rate, July construction indicators and the August 25 national New Residential Sales release are post quarter context. They do not establish or forecast C.A.R.’s Q3 California HAI and cannot be used to infer Riverside County new home absorption.

Methodology and data notes

New Construction Applicability: Active. This publication directly addresses affordability, housing supply, buyer choice, financing and future housing conditions, so the Permanent New Construction Intelligence Layer applies.

How to read the evidence. The publication intentionally keeps affordability, construction and market activity measures separate. C.A.R.’s HAI describes a modeled existing home affordability benchmark. Census permits, starts and completions describe separate stages of housing production. Census New Residential Sales describes the national new single family home sales and for sale universe. CMN builder market monitoring describes observed marketed community options. Resale listings and transactions describe a different market universe.

Primary affordability source: California Association of REALTORS®, 2nd Quarter 2026 Housing Affordability, released August 5, 2026.

C.A.R. Traditional HAI methodology: existing single family median price; 20% assumed down payment; 80% financed amount; principal and interest based on C.A.R.’s effective composite mortgage rate; property taxes assumed at 1% of median price annually; homeowners insurance assumed at 0.38% of median price annually; monthly principal, interest, taxes and insurance constrained to 30% of household income; minimum annual qualifying income compared with the household income distribution. The quarterly HAI series begins in 2006; the earlier series was monthly.

Historical price series: C.A.R. Annual Historical Data Summary, May 2026. California’s annual median existing single family home price was $319,310 in 2012 and $875,550 in 2025. Approximately 174% cumulative growth and 8.1% compound annual growth are CMN calculations from those verified inputs.

Revision control: Current C.A.R. Q2 2026 table values govern overlapping Q2 2025 and Q1 2026 comparisons because prior period values may be revised.

Frequency control: Annual price observations, annual permit observations, quarterly HAI observations, monthly construction indicators, monthly national new home sales and inventory estimates and point in time marketed community observations are not presented as though they are the same type of series.

New construction methodology: National pipeline evidence comes from the U.S. Census Bureau New Residential Construction release and preserves the separate definitions of permits, starts and completions. National new home sales, for sale inventory, months of supply and new home sales prices come from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD New Residential Sales release and remain separate from construction stage measures. California and Riverside County permit data come from the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey. Riverside County’s annual series is presented through FRED BPPRIV006065, sourced from the Census Building Permits Survey and covering all structure types.

National New Residential Sales control: The July 2026 release reported new single family home sales at 607,000 SAAR, down 10.5% from revised June and 6.3% from July 2025; 488,000 new houses for sale; 9.6 months of supply; and a $393,800 median sales price. These are national estimates. They are not imputed to California, Riverside County or Southwest Riverside markets.

Marketed new home snapshot: The Riverside County snapshot comes from current CMN builder market monitoring evidence captured August 23, 2026. It is contextual marketed new home and community evidence, not a Census style universe or complete inventory database. Displayed asking prices are not closing prices or market medians. Visible homes are not starts, completions, closings or total inventory.

Geography control: State and county HAI values are not imputed to Southwest Riverside cities. County permit totals are not imputed to cities. National new home sales and inventory estimates are not imputed to California or Riverside County. No city level HAI, inventory total, absorption rate or builder market share is claimed without defensibly comparable evidence.

Post quarter control: C.A.R. July 2026 statistics, Freddie Mac’s August 27 rate, Census July construction indicators, Census July New Residential Sales released August 25 and the August 23 CMN builder market monitoring snapshot are contextual updates. None is used to recalculate Q2 HAI or forecast Q3 HAI.

Model limitation: The HAI is a modeled population affordability index. It is not an individual mortgage approval, underwriting decision, financial recommendation or representation that a particular household can afford a property.

Research and educational information only. No fiduciary duties or brokerage representation are created by this publication. Housing affordability metrics are modeled benchmarks and are not individual underwriting, credit, lending or financial advice. Builder pricing, inventory and incentives may change and must be verified for a specific property and program. Building permits are authorizations and do not represent completed or available housing. Data may be revised by the issuing sources. Readers should verify current conditions and obtain appropriate professional advice for individual decisions.

For real estate representation, contact Charles M. Nolan Jr.
DRE #02223634 | First Team Real Estate

Article Sources

California Association of REALTORS®: 2nd Quarter 2026 Housing Affordability https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/2qtr2026HAI California Association of REALTORS®: Traditional Housing Affordability Index Methodology https://www.car.org/marketdata/data/haimethodology/ California Association of REALTORS®: July 2026 Home Sales and Price Report https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/July2026HomeSales Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms U.S. Census Bureau: New Residential Construction, July 2026 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/ U.S. Census Bureau and HUD: New Residential Sales, July 2026 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: California Building Permits 2025 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/CA/PST045223 U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey via FRED: Riverside County annual permit series BPPRIV006065 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BPPRIV006065 CMN builder market monitoring: Riverside County and Southwest Riverside marketed new home snapshot captured August 23, 2026. Supporting evidence is retained in the internal CMN research record. California Association of REALTORS®: Annual Historical Data Summary, May 2026.
About the Author

Charles M. Nolan Jr.

Founder | Housing Intelligence & Real Estate Advisor

Charles M. Nolan Jr. is the Founder of CMN Realty Group, a Southern California housing intelligence, property research, and real estate advisory company. CMN provides the research, data, methodology, market context, and decision-support system behind the work. Charles provides the human relationship, consultation, negotiation, and licensed real estate representation when a buyer or seller wants to move from analysis into execution. Licensed real estate activity is conducted through First Team Real Estate under California DRE #02223634.

CA DRE #02223634First Team Real EstateCalifornia Small Business
Share this researchLinkedInEmailCopy Link
Custom Research

Need This Research Applied to a Specific Market, Property, or Decision?

Need a documented view of affordability pressure and housing production? CMN prepares housing market research, development pipeline analysis and data visualization for planning, policy and institutional decision support. Request research support.

Learn about CMN custom housing intelligence briefs.
Explore the Intelligence Brief
Custom Research

Need More Than General Market Information?

Request a custom housing intelligence brief built around your market, property, organization, or decision.